Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No 97%
Pronosticadores
13
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 8 horas
Desactualizado3 abr 23, 3:03 UTC3 abr 28, 6:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Which states will report local cases in the May 2026 Ebola Bundibugyo outbreak
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Manifold MarketsWill my resolution of the COVID-19 lab leak market be controversial?
Manifold MarketsWhich countries will report an Ebola disease case before October?
KalshiWhich countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?
PolymarketEbola pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketReglas
On twitter, some scientists are claiming that genetic evidence indicates the 2021 Ebola outbreak was likely caused by a lab leak.
- Others are calling these claims unserious.
- I possess neither the biological expertise nor the knowledge of the particulars here to have an informed opinion, though I'd expect that more likely than not, within 5 years we'll have pretty good evidence one way or the other.
- I'll resolve this market in 5 years based on what the general consensus of good-faith domain experts seems to be (if they lean one way, I'll resolve in the direction they lean).
- If it appears to be a toss-up, I'll resolve it to N/A.
Mercados abiertos
Health & MedicinePOLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No97%
- Yes3%
- Volumen total
- 15,6 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 11,6 mil €
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No-1.0pt93.1%
- Yes+1.0pt6.9%
- Volumen total
- 921 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 4,7 mil €
POLYMARKETMeasles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- ↑3.5k100%
- ↑500+0.1pt100%
- ↑1k+0.1pt100%
+9 resultados más
KALSHIMedtronic cardiovascular growth in Q2
- Above 8%92%
- Above 9%81%
- Above 11%45%
+6 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 2,6 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,4 mil €
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 400097%
- Above 6000-1.0pt60%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 869,1 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,3 mil €
KALSHIPandemic in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes5%
- Volumen total
- 612,8 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,1 mil €
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Was the 2021 Ebola outbreak caused by a lab leak??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 97% a fecha de 10 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Was the 2021 Ebola outbreak caused by a lab leak??
- Está previsto que Was the 2021 Ebola outbreak caused by a lab leak? se resuelva el 3 de abril de 2028.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Was the 2021 Ebola outbreak caused by a lab leak??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: On twitter, some scientists are claiming that genetic evidence indicates the 2021 Ebola outbreak was likely caused by a lab leak.