Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 87.3%
Pronosticadores
42
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 12 horas
Desactualizado17 nov 25, 1:59 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
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PolymarketNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketReglas
Resolution criteria
- The market resolves YES if the Ukraine-Russia war ends by December 31, 2026. "War ends" is defined as a formal ceasefire agreement, peace treaty, or other official cessation of hostilities between Russia and Ukraine that is recognized by both governments and results in a sustained halt to major combat operations for at least 30 consecutive days.
- The market resolves NO if active combat continues beyond December 31, 2026, or if any ceasefire/agreement breaks down before the 30-day threshold is met.
- As of September 2025, Russia's war in Ukraine has dragged on for three and a half years, with no end in sight despite nine months of efforts by the United States to end the fighting.
- Neither round of talks achieved a breakthrough, although agreement was reached on the exchange of prisoners of war and Ukraine and Russia have committed to continue dialogue.
- Russia's president Vladimir Putin seeks recognition of all occupied land as Russian and guarantees that Ukraine will never join NATO, while Ukraine's president Volodymyr Zelenskyy seeks a full withdrawal of Russian troops and security guarantees to prevent further Russian aggression.
Mercados abiertos
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- J.D. Vance50%
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Ukraine war ends in 2026??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 87% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Ukraine war ends in 2026??
- Está previsto que Ukraine war ends in 2026? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Ukraine war ends in 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution criteria