Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 90.8%
Pronosticadores
14
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 7 horas
Desactualizado23 dic 25, 23:52 UTC1 ene 29, 22:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?
Polymarket🧭Which of these things will happen before Ukraine joins NATO? [ADD RESPONSES]
Manifold MarketsRussia announces new wave of mobilization before November 2026
Manifold MarketsNord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?
PolymarketWill a US ally get a nuke before 2027?
PolymarketWill conclusive evidence emerge before 2030 that Viktor Orbán is a Russian asset?
Manifold MarketsReglas
Resolution criteria
- Accession negotiations officially opened on 25 June 2024, and the market resolves YES if Ukraine becomes a full member of the European Union before January 1, 2029.
- Resolution will be determined by official EU announcements confirming Ukraine's accession as a member state.
- The market resolves NO if Ukraine has not achieved full membership by December 31, 2028.
- Ukraine applied for membership of the European Union on 28 February 2022, four days after it was invaded by Russia.
- The European Council granted Ukraine the status of a candidate for accession to the EU on 23 June 2022.
Mercados abiertos
PoliticsPOLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Flávio Bolsonaro+1.9pt60.4%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-2.0pt38.6%
- Renan Santos+0.2pt1%
+16 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 133,5 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 911 mil €
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep+3.0pt60.4%
- D-House, R-Senate29.7%
- Republicans sweep-0.9pt8.9%
+1 resultados más
- Volumen total
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt21%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+0.3pt13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 resultados más
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.9%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt15.8%
- Gavin Newsom-1.0pt13.7%
+45 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 194,4 M €
KALSHILos Angeles Mayor winner?
- Karen Bass-6.0pt56.4%
- Nithya Raman+6.0pt43.6%
- Volumen total
- 28,9 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 538,8 mil €
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party-0.7pt90.1%
- Republican Party+0.8pt9.9%
- Volumen total
- 30,1 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 475,4 mil €
- Next French Presidential Election
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Ohio Senate winner?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by which date?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Trump's RCP approval average on Sep 22, 2026?
- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Ukraine joins EU before 2029??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 90.8% a fecha de 22 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Ukraine joins EU before 2029??
- Está previsto que Ukraine joins EU before 2029? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2029.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Ukraine joins EU before 2029??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution criteria