Pronóstico comunitario actual
Sí 53.1%
Pronosticadores
13
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 5 horas
Desactualizado17 ago 25, 10:40 UTC30 mar 29, 22:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
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PolymarketReglas
Resolution criteria
- Resolves YES if, before the federal polling day in February/March 2029 (if any) or by 31 Mar 2029, 23:59 CET otherwise, the federal cabinet in office is no longer a CDU/CSU–SPD coalition.
- This can occur via: (a) the Bundestag elects a new chancellor heading a different coalition; or (b) CDU/CSU or SPD exits government such that ministers from both are no longer in the cabinet.
- Verification will rely on official listings and announcements (Bundestag records of chancellor election and cabinet composition; presidential/bundestag notices on cabinet changes).
- (bundestag.de)
- Resolves NO if, at the cutoff, the cabinet in office is still composed of CDU/CSU and SPD ministers (including any caretaker period with the same parties).
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de The current German government of CDU/CSU and SPD dissolves prior to February 2029 elections??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 53% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve The current German government of CDU/CSU and SPD dissolves prior to February 2029 elections??
- Está previsto que The current German government of CDU/CSU and SPD dissolves prior to February 2029 elections? se resuelva el 30 de marzo de 2029.
- ¿Cómo se liquida The current German government of CDU/CSU and SPD dissolves prior to February 2029 elections??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution criteria