The anti-vax market: Which vaccines become less available in the US, 2025-2026
PolíticaOne-OffHealth & MedicineUS Politics3m
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
COVID (mRNA vaccines) 100%Líder entre 14 opciones
Pronosticadores
16
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 7 horas
Desactualizado7 nov 24, 23:41 UTC4 ene 27, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
100%
100%
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KalshiReglas
Trump has a lot of prominent anti-vaxxers in his circle, including RFK Jr. who has flip-flopped about whether he wants to see vaccines banned.
- So here's a market for a dozen common vaccines in the US.
- Each of these markets will resolve YES if, any some time prior to the seating of the 120th congress (Jan 3, 2027), the vaccine becomes greatly more expensive, less covered by major insurance, or in sufficient shortage to cause people to miss scheduled doses, or no longer approved for significant populations (e.g. children or the elderly) that could previously get it in the US.
- Removal of mandates or recommendations will not be a YES unless it also results in changes in insurance coverage or availability.
- No distinction will be made as to whether the reduced availability is attributable to an obvious government policy, natural disaster, occult UFO conspiracy, or chance, because I don't want to suss out means and motives to resolve the market.
- If I've missed an interesting vaccine, or otherwise messed up a choice, request it in the comments.