Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 25 oct 2026, 6:30 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actual60 or more days 50.1%+1.1ptLíder entre 17 opciones
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19
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
+27.1 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 16 horas
Desactualizado16 feb 26, 5:24 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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How many SpaceX Starship launches will reach space in 2026?
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Manifold MarketsHow many Starship launches will reach space in 2026?
KalshiWill SpaceX's Starship have 40 successful launches before 2027?
Manifold MarketsReglas
Shortest gap between any two launches - does NOT need to be same ship or booster.
- Short gaps in 2025 included January 16th to March 6th flights 7 and 8 with 49 day gap August 27th to October 14th flights 10 and 11 with 48 day gap
- If version 3 works well, manufacturing might speed up considerably and there might be reuse and even refuelling attempts but it isn't clear how fast pad 2 can be turned around if the ships and boosters are available.
- If it doesn't work well like version 2, then long delays are possible.