Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actual5 or more 27%+1.5%Líder entre 8 opciones
Pronosticadores
60
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 27 minutos
2 ago 25, 1:1331 dic 26, 23:59
Tendencias
Solo fondos simulados, sin dinero realNo es asesoramiento financiero
Resultado elegido
5 or more27%
Comparar plataformas· 3 or more
Ordenado por calidad de mercado, luego liquidez y volumen de 24 h| Plataforma | Calidad | Probabilidad | vs. referencia | Vol 24h | Liq | Actualidad | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiMejor en general82% de coincidencia · verificado | Media | 51% | — | 861,9 € | 14,1 mil € | hace 27 minutos | Abrir → |
 Polymarket82% de coincidencia · verificado | Media | 67% | — | 745,3 € | 16,3 mil € | hace 7 minutos | Abrir → |
| Kalshi80% de coincidencia · verificado | Baja | 88% | — | 0 € | 2,3 mil € | hace 27 minutos | Abrir → |
 Limitless82% de coincidencia · vinculado | Baja | 66% | — | 0 € | 0 € | hace 27 minutos | Abrir → |
| Manifold MarketsEsta página | — | 89% | — | — | — | hace 27 minutos |
También disponible en Polymarket
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
7.5%5m
+7.5%67%
-5.5%19%
-0.6%11%
+5 resultados más
52 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioLiquidez mediaAlta ambigüedad
Volumen total430,3 mil €
Volumen 24h745,3 €
POLYMARKETTambién disponible en Kalshi
How many SpaceX Starship launches will reach space in 2026?
1.0%5m
51%
18%
+2.0%16%
+7 resultados más
52 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioLiquidez mediaAlta ambigüedad
Volumen total22,4 mil €
Volumen 24h861,9 €
KALSHITambién disponible en Limitless
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
5m
66.3%
19.3%
11.8%
+5 resultados más
28 • Baja calidadSpread desconocidoBaja liquidezMercado poco profundo
Volumen total21,6 €
Volumen 24h0 €
LIMITLESSTambién disponible en Kalshi
How many Starship launches will reach space in 2026?
5m
88%
71%
38%
+7 resultados más
49 • Baja calidadSpread moderadoLiquidez media
Volumen total2,9 mil €
Volumen 24h0 €
KALSHIReglas
Launch is defined as lifting off from the pad, even slightly, under the thrust of its own engines (the launch does not have to be successful)
- Must be a full stack launch, but any Starship variant counts
- Answers will resolve as they are fulfilled
- I may resolve answers NO early if I'm exceedingly certain they aren't attainable
- UTC is used for determining 2026 start/end
Las probabilidades pueden diferir debido a diferentes estructuras de mercado, comisiones y grupos de participantes.
Tendencia de volumen
$1.3k8 jul17d de datos26 jul
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Launch is defined as lifting off from the pad, even slightly, under the thrust of its own engines (the launch does not have to be successful)
- Must be a full stack launch, but any Starship variant counts
- Answers will resolve as they are fulfilled
- I may resolve answers NO early if I'm exceedingly certain they aren't attainable
- UTC is used for determining 2026 start/end