When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched?

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4,1 mil €

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When will Starship complete an orbit?

584,6 €

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Each option will resolve yes if a reusable booster is launched by an entity other than SpaceX by the end of the date stated (Eastern time).

In order to count as reusable, the booster needs to actually be successfully re-used! However only the initial launch of the booster needs to happen by the date stated, the re-use launch can happen up to 2 years later and will retroactively make the date of the initial launch count.
Example: Rocket A and rocket B are both non-SpaceX rockets intended to be reusable, and no other relevant launches occur.
Rocket A is launched successfully on Nov 20th 2026 but never reused.
Rocket B is launched on Dec 20th 2027, then re-launched successfully on April 15th 2028.
The options would resolve as follows:

When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched?

IAOne-OffSpace Tecnología5a

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibrado

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Datos del 6 jun 2026, 22:04 UTC · política pm-quality-2

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By Dec 31, 2025 74%

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By Dec 31, 202574%

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Reglas

Each option will resolve yes if a reusable booster is launched by an entity other than SpaceX by the end of the date stated (Eastern time).

In order to count as reusable, the booster needs to actually be successfully re-used! However only the initial launch of the booster needs to happen by the date stated, the re-use launch can happen up to 2 years later and will retroactively make the date of the initial launch count.
Example: Rocket A and rocket B are both non-SpaceX rockets intended to be reusable, and no other relevant launches occur.
Rocket A is launched successfully on Nov 20th 2026 but never reused.
Rocket B is launched on Dec 20th 2027, then re-launched successfully on April 15th 2028.
The options would resolve as follows:

Mercados Relacionados

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SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?

SpaceX: 97%

SpaceX Market Cap after Lock Up Period?

Below 0.5T: 1%

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

4,1 mil €

SpaceX: 86%

When will Starship complete an orbit?

584,6 €

February 2024: 0%

AI data center in space by ?