Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
By Dec 31, 2030 98.9%Líder entre 6 opciones
Pronosticadores
35
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 4 horas
Desactualizado7 ene 25, 4:56 UTC1 ene 32, 5:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
By which flight will SpaceX successfully recover both Starship and its Booster?
Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX launch a non-SpaceX payload on Starship before 2030?
Manifold MarketsSpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2028?
PolymarketSpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?
Polymarket[ACX 2026] Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?
FutuurReglas
Each option will resolve yes if a reusable booster is launched by an entity other than SpaceX by the end of the date stated (Eastern time).
- In order to count as reusable, the booster needs to actually be successfully re-used! However only the initial launch of the booster needs to happen by the date stated, the re-use launch can happen up to 2 years later and will retroactively make the date of the initial launch count.
- Example: Rocket A and rocket B are both non-SpaceX rockets intended to be reusable, and no other relevant launches occur.
- Rocket A is launched successfully on Nov 20th 2026 but never reused.
- Rocket B is launched on Dec 20th 2027, then re-launched successfully on April 15th 2028.
- The options would resolve as follows:
Mercados abiertos
AIPOLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+24.5pt89%
- 2026+59.0pt82%
- September 30, 2026+56.0pt63%
- Volumen total
- 93,7 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 59,5 mil €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+0.9pt58.1%
- ChatGPT+1.0pt22.9%
- Grok+3.2pt8.6%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,2 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+53.0pt93%
- 2026+53.5pt73%
- September 30, 2026+51.5pt57%
KALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.25%-7.0pt88%
- Above 2.45%79%
- Above 2.6%+16.0pt56%
+6 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 60,8 mil €
POLYMARKETWhich Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Hodge Conjecture50.5%
- Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer27.1%
- No solution by Dec 31, 202710.3%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 32,3 mil €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+1.0pt89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,84%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 2,4 M €
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- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
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- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched??
- Manifold Markets cotiza By Dec 31, 2030 al 99% a fecha de 10 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched??
- Está previsto que When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2032.
- ¿Cómo se liquida When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Each option will resolve yes if a reusable booster is launched by an entity other than SpaceX by the end of the date stated (Eastern time).