¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Significant AI memory scaling axis unlocked before 2029??

Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 58% a fecha de 30 de septiembre de 2026.

¿Cuándo se resuelve Significant AI memory scaling axis unlocked before 2029??

Está previsto que Significant AI memory scaling axis unlocked before 2029? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2028.

Significant AI memory scaling axis unlocked before 2029?

IAOne-Off2a

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptable

Pronóstico comunitario actual

Sí 58%

Pronosticadores

Tipo de pregunta

binary

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 11 horas

Desactualizado

22 oct 25, 21:06 UTC31 dic 28, 23:59 UTC

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

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Resolves YES if there is strong evidence that a new axis of AI scaling has emerged involving memory before January 1st 2029.

This includes, but is not limited to, an algorithm that yields continued improvements on benchmarks as a function of inference-time memory (measured in e.g. gigabytes of RAM) across multiple orders of magnitude.
This is distinct from the model weights that are memory invariant between training and inference.
There must be evidence of a regime where this scaling occurs independent to the pretraining and inference-time compute scaling axes in order for this question to resolve YES.

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Significant AI memory scaling axis unlocked before 2029?

IAOne-Off2a

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptable

Pronóstico comunitario actual

Sí 58%

Pronosticadores

Tipo de pregunta

binary

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 11 horas

Desactualizado

22 oct 25, 21:06 UTC31 dic 28, 23:59 UTC

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Mercados Relacionados

Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.

Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2030?

Manifold Markets

Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2031?

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Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2027?

Manifold Markets

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

Polymarket

Gemini 4.0 released by which date?

Polymarket

Best AI at the end of 2026?

Kalshi

Reglas

Resolves YES if there is strong evidence that a new axis of AI scaling has emerged involving memory before January 1st 2029.

This includes, but is not limited to, an algorithm that yields continued improvements on benchmarks as a function of inference-time memory (measured in e.g. gigabytes of RAM) across multiple orders of magnitude.
This is distinct from the model weights that are memory invariant between training and inference.
There must be evidence of a regime where this scaling occurs independent to the pretraining and inference-time compute scaling axes in order for this question to resolve YES.