¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Ratio of Claude Mythos METR 50% to 80% time horizon?

Manifold Markets cotiza 5-7.5 al 89% a fecha de 25 de julio de 2026.

¿Cuándo se resuelve Ratio of Claude Mythos METR 50% to 80% time horizon?

Está previsto que Ratio of Claude Mythos METR 50% to 80% time horizon se resuelva el 24 de julio de 2026.

Ratio of Claude Mythos METR 50% to 80% time horizon

ChainlinkOne-OffIA

Manifold MarketsCerradoSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptable

Este mercado se resolvió: 5-7.5 (88.6%)

Resuelto: 24 jul 2026, 23:32

Resolución verificada por el proveedor

CoinRithm tiene evidencia del ganador y del momento de liquidación respaldada por el proveedor para este mercado.

Pronóstico comunitario actual

5-7.5 88.6%+11.4pt

Líder entre 10 opciones

Pronosticadores

Tipo de pregunta

multiple choice

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 26 días

Desactualizado

9 abr 26, 16:4924 jul 26, 23:32

Cronología de Probabilidad

>501.1%

40-501.1%

30-401.1%

25-301.1%

20-251.1%

15-201.3%

10-151.9%

7.5-101.5%

5-7.588.6%

<51%

5-7.5

+11.4 pts

88.6%

10-15

-1.9 pts

1.9%

7.5-10

-1.5 pts

1.5%

15-20

-1.3 pts

1.3%

>50

-1.1 pts

1.1%

40-50

-1.1 pts

1.1%

30-40

-1.1 pts

1.1%

25-30

-1.1 pts

1.1%

20-25

-1.1 pts

1.1%

-1.0 pts

Reglas

This market will resolve to the RATIO of the highest 50% time horizon, to the highest 80% time horizon, as reported by METR, for the first Claude Mythos model to appear on METR's graph.

'Mythos' includes any Claude model that sits above 'Opus' in Anthropic's naming scheme, even if Anthropic ends up calling it something other than Mythos.
Notably, Opus 4.6 had far higher ratio (nearly 12:1) than earlier models (2024 models typically had 3-5:1) Will this trend continue or reverse? Is reliability improving over time?
Mythos 50% time horizon: https://manifold.markets/jim/claude-mythos-metr-50-time-horizon Will any model exceed a 3 hr 80% time horizon in 2026: https://manifold.markets/DaftPunkRock/acx-2026-will-an-ai-model-reach-a-3
[image]Left bounds inclusive, right bounds exclusive.
[link preview]Update 2026-06-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market will resolve based on Claude Fable 5's 50%/80% horizon ratio if METR releases that evaluation.

Ratio of Claude Mythos METR 50% to 80% time horizon

ChainlinkOne-OffIA

Manifold MarketsCerradoSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptable

Este mercado se resolvió: 5-7.5 (88.6%)

Resuelto: 24 jul 2026, 23:32

Resolución verificada por el proveedor

CoinRithm tiene evidencia del ganador y del momento de liquidación respaldada por el proveedor para este mercado.

Pronóstico comunitario actual

5-7.5 88.6%+11.4pt

Líder entre 10 opciones

Pronosticadores

Tipo de pregunta

multiple choice

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 26 días

Desactualizado

9 abr 26, 16:4924 jul 26, 23:32

Cronología de Probabilidad

>501.1%

40-501.1%

30-401.1%

25-301.1%

20-251.1%

15-201.3%

10-151.9%

7.5-101.5%

5-7.588.6%

<51%

5-7.5

+11.4 pts

88.6%

10-15

-1.9 pts

1.9%

7.5-10

-1.5 pts

1.5%

15-20

-1.3 pts

1.3%

>50

-1.1 pts

1.1%

40-50

-1.1 pts

1.1%

30-40

-1.1 pts

1.1%

25-30

-1.1 pts

1.1%

20-25

-1.1 pts

1.1%

-1.0 pts

Reglas

This market will resolve to the RATIO of the highest 50% time horizon, to the highest 80% time horizon, as reported by METR, for the first Claude Mythos model to appear on METR's graph.

'Mythos' includes any Claude model that sits above 'Opus' in Anthropic's naming scheme, even if Anthropic ends up calling it something other than Mythos.
Notably, Opus 4.6 had far higher ratio (nearly 12:1) than earlier models (2024 models typically had 3-5:1) Will this trend continue or reverse? Is reliability improving over time?
Mythos 50% time horizon: https://manifold.markets/jim/claude-mythos-metr-50-time-horizon Will any model exceed a 3 hr 80% time horizon in 2026: https://manifold.markets/DaftPunkRock/acx-2026-will-an-ai-model-reach-a-3
[image]Left bounds inclusive, right bounds exclusive.
[link preview]Update 2026-06-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market will resolve based on Claude Fable 5's 50%/80% horizon ratio if METR releases that evaluation.

Preguntas frecuentes

¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Ratio of Claude Mythos METR 50% to 80% time horizon?: Manifold Markets cotiza 5-7.5 al 89% a fecha de 25 de julio de 2026.
¿Cuándo se resuelve Ratio of Claude Mythos METR 50% to 80% time horizon?: Está previsto que Ratio of Claude Mythos METR 50% to 80% time horizon se resuelva el 24 de julio de 2026.
¿Cómo se liquida Ratio of Claude Mythos METR 50% to 80% time horizon?: Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This market will resolve to the RATIO of the highest 50% time horizon, to the highest 80% time horizon, as reported by METR, for the first Claude Mythos model to appear on METR's graph.

Ratio of Claude Mythos METR 50% to 80% time horizon

Ratio of Claude Mythos METR 50% to 80% time horizon

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