Which of Ars Technica's Starship timeline predictions will be accurate?
ChainlinkOne-OffEspacioIATecnologíaPolítica2a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actual
In-space second stage raptor relight in Q4 2024 or Q1 2025 100%Líder entre 7 opciones
In-space second stage raptor relight in Q4 2024 or Q1 2025 100%Pronosticadores
33
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
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Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 2 horas
Desactualizado28 oct 24, 14:20 UTC1 ene 29, 4:59 UTC
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Based on https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/10/spacex-has-caught-a-massive-rocket-so-whats-next/
- [link preview]I substituted quarters for the vague "early", "mid", "late" phrasing and gave each prediction at least a six-month window.
- All options refer to the first time a given milestone happens after market creation.
- Too early = NO.
- Added clarifications:
- Starship second stage landing on land: Should be a soft landing/catch where it stays upright and doesn't immediately explode.
