Which of Ars Technica's Starship timeline predictions will be accurate?
ChainlinkOne-OffSpaceIATecnologíaPolítica2a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
In-space second stage raptor relight in Q4 2024 or Q1 2025 100%Líder entre 7 opciones
Pronosticadores
33
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 4 horas
Desactualizado28 oct 24, 14:20 UTC1 ene 29, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
100%
0%
0%
0%
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Exit valuation of Spine AI (YC S23)?
Manifold MarketsWho will ever rank Top 10 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text Leaderboard in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich publicly traded US companies will do a purely-LLM-performance-based layoff in 2026?
Manifold MarketsLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketAI data center in space by which date?
PolymarketNext Grok Model (4.6+): Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?
PolymarketReglas
Based on https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/10/spacex-has-caught-a-massive-rocket-so-whats-next/
- [link preview]I substituted quarters for the vague "early", "mid", "late" phrasing and gave each prediction at least a six-month window.
- All options refer to the first time a given milestone happens after market creation.
- Too early = NO.
- Added clarifications:
- Starship second stage landing on land: Should be a soft landing/catch where it stays upright and doesn't immediately explode.
