Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualBefore 2026-12-01 88.9%Líder entre 7 opciones
Pronosticadores
4
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 10 minutos
31 ago 26, 14:57 UTC1 dic 26, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Qwen 4 (Alibaba Qwen) release date
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Manifold MarketsReglas
The '+' means any version at or above 3.9 counts: if Alibaba skips 3.9 and releases Qwen 4, that still counts for the purpose of this market.
- Minor changes to the name, or other names for a model generally expected to be called Qwen 3.9, will also count.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
Mercados abiertos
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+1.2pt69.2%
- ChatGPT+1.6pt14.4%
- Gemini-1.3pt9.6%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 10,2 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 125,4 mil €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+9.0pt78%
- December 15,+9.5pt74%
- November 30,+4.0pt54%
+7 resultados más
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 202791%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt89%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-1.0pt82%
+9 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 1,9 M €
POLYMARKETNext Claude Opus released on?
- September 21+61.1pt87.9%
- No release by September 30-10.7pt4%
- September 22-26.9pt1%
+13 resultados más
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude92.5%
- ChatGPT0.9%
- Amazon Nova0.9%
+6 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 156,3 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 26,1 mil €
POLYMARKETWill OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by which date?
- December-13.0pt28%
- October-14.0pt7%
- December 31, 2025-0.2pt0%
+1 resultados más
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
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- U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Qwen 3.9+ (Alibaba Qwen) release date?
- Manifold Markets cotiza Before 2026-12-01 al 89% a fecha de 21 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Qwen 3.9+ (Alibaba Qwen) release date?
- Está previsto que Qwen 3.9+ (Alibaba Qwen) release date se resuelva el 1 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Qwen 3.9+ (Alibaba Qwen) release date?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: The '+' means any version at or above 3.9 counts: if Alibaba skips 3.9 and releases Qwen 4, that still counts for the purpose of this market.