Manifold MarketsCerradoSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableDatos de resolución no verificados: August 31 - September 13
Resuelto: 4 sept 2026, 18:57
Este resultado se infiere o no está respaldado por evidencia de liquidación de nivel proveedor.
Aviso de calidad de datosDatos obsoletos
Datos del 5 sept 2026, 13:01 UTC · política pm-quality-3
Cronología de Probabilidad
August 3 - August 163.6%
August 17 - August 300%
August 31 - September 13100%
September 14 - September 300%
October 1 - October 110%
Resultado pendiente
Resultado pendiente
Resultado pendiente
Resultado pendiente
Resultado pendiente
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Reglas
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves based on the date when OpenAI officially releases any model in its Astra model family (whether named "GPT-5.6 Astra", "Astra", or another variation) to the public or developers.
- If "Astra" is not specifically named, up to my discretion if the public model was codenamed Astra based on public information.
- Definition of "Release": A release is defined as the model becoming accessible to general end-users (e.g., via ChatGPT Plus, Team, Enterprise, or Free tiers) or to developers via the OpenAI API (including public beta, developer preview, or general availability).
- Closed demonstrations, private alpha tests, or internal-only evaluations do not count.
- On August 1, 2026, OpenAI published a blog post titled "Ten advances in mathematics and theoretical computer science" detailing how an internal version of Astra, which they explicitly called "our next major model," had successfully solved ten long-standing open problems.