Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoAviso de calidad de datosDatos obsoletos
Datos del 19 jul 2026, 13:30 UTC · política pm-quality-3
Pronóstico comunitario actual≥$0.6T 100%Líder entre 10 opciones
Pronosticadores
11
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 8 días
Desactualizado22 abr 26, 3:491 oct 26, 3:59
Tendencias
Solo fondos simulados, sin dinero realNo es asesoramiento financiero
Resultado elegido
≥$0.9T70%
Comparar plataformas· ≥$0.6T
Ordenado por calidad de mercado, luego liquidez y volumen de 24 h| Plataforma | Calidad | Probabilidad | vs. referencia | Vol 24h | Liq | Actualidad | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketMejor en general82% de coincidencia · verificado | Media | 73% | — | 2,2 mil € | 133,7 mil € | hace 17 minutos | Abrir → |
| Manifold MarketsEsta página | — | 100% | — | — | — | hace 8 días |
También disponible en Polymarket
Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
1.6 pts5m
73%
+1.5pt64%
+0.5pt53%
+12 resultados más
74 • Calidad mediaSpread estrechoAlta liquidezAlta ambigüedad
Volumen total819,9 mil €
Volumen 24h2,2 mil €
POLYMARKETReglas
Resolves each threshold based on the peak valuation for OpenAI credibly reported with an as-of date on or before 2026-09-30.
- Pre-IPO: valuation is set by primary funding rounds, tender offers, or IPO pricing.
- Secondary transactions between existing investors do not count — they reflect individual trades, not company-endorsed valuation events.
- Post-IPO: valuation = peak market cap between IPO and 2026-09-30 (highest closing share price × shares outstanding at that time).
- ≥$X resolves YES as soon as such a figure meets or exceeds $X; remaining thresholds resolve NO at close.
- Company announcements; SEC filings (S-1, 424B, 10-Q, 10-K); major financial press (The Information, Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ).
Las probabilidades pueden diferir debido a diferentes estructuras de mercado, comisiones y grupos de participantes.
Tendencia de volumen
$4318 jul2d de datos19 jul
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When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
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KALSHI
KALSHI
When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO?
671,7 €Before Sep 1, 2026: 2%KALSHI
KALSHIActivos en estos temas
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Resolves each threshold based on the peak valuation for OpenAI credibly reported with an as-of date on or before 2026-09-30.
- Pre-IPO: valuation is set by primary funding rounds, tender offers, or IPO pricing.
- Secondary transactions between existing investors do not count — they reflect individual trades, not company-endorsed valuation events.
- Post-IPO: valuation = peak market cap between IPO and 2026-09-30 (highest closing share price × shares outstanding at that time).
- ≥$X resolves YES as soon as such a figure meets or exceeds $X; remaining thresholds resolve NO at close.
- Company announcements; SEC filings (S-1, 424B, 10-Q, 10-K); major financial press (The Information, Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ).