Netherlands raises standard naturalization residency requirement to ≥10 years by Dec 31, 2026?
Política de EE. UU.One-OffEuropaEntretenimientoMúsica2mManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 96.2%
Pronosticadores
12
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 2 horas
Desactualizado27 oct 25, 15:29 UTC30 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will speaking English become a legal requirement for permanent residency in the UK before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich cards will be re-banned in Modern within two years (before Dec. 16, 2026)?
Manifold MarketsWho Will Perform at Harry Styles’ MSG Residency?
KalshiWill "The Inkhaven Residency" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill Indiana Public Question 2 (city and town court judge residency) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?
Manifold MarketsWill any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027?
MetaculusReglas
Under the Rijkswet op het Nederlanderschap (RWN), the general rule for regular naturalization is 5 years of continuous lawful residence.
- The Dutch cabinet announced its intent to move this to 10 years.
- This market is about whether that change actually becomes law.
- Resolution criteria:
- YES if an amendment to the RWN that sets the standard residency requirement for regular naturalization to 10 years (or more) is published in the Staatsblad (official Gazette) on or before 2026-12-31.
- Entry-into-force may occur later; publication in the Staatsblad with the 10-year rule is sufficient.
