Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027?
GeopolíticaMetaculusCerradoDatos de resolución no verificadosEste mercado se resolvió: No (99.9%)
Datos de resolución no verificados
Este resultado se infiere o no está respaldado por evidencia de liquidación de nivel proveedor.
Pronóstico comunitario actualNo 99.9%
Pronosticadores
978
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Community forecast
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 92 días
Desactualizado15 nov 16, 19:4631 ene 27, 23:59
Cronología de Probabilidad
Yes0.1%
No99.9%
0.1%
99.9%
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Anti-European sentiment is running strong in the EU and it may grow stronger – strong enough to destroy it, maybe? The UK voted for Brexit and political pundits are already discussing [Nexit](http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/717904/Nexit-Dutch-turn-right-euroscepticism-Geert-Wilders-Mark-Rutte), [Frexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/frexit-nexit-or-oexit-who-will-be-next-to-leave-the-eu) and [Quitaly](https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/jul/26/italy-economy-banks-loans-crisis-europe).
- Some commentators argue that Brexit is already the end of the EU as we know it, some would say that Brexit may be fine but if any other country was to leave would spell the end of the union.
- We choose an even stricter criterion by requiring then one of the [6 original founders of the ECSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_Six) leave the union to decree the end of the EU as we know it.
- This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, one or more of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany triggers Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon by notifying the European Council of its intention to leave the union.
- It also resolves as positive if by the same deadline the entity called European Union has dissolved completely or dissolved to create a new politico-economic union of some European nations under a different name