Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027?
GeopolíticaMetaculusCerradoDatos de resolución no verificadosEste mercado se resolvió: No
Datos de resolución no verificados
Este resultado se infiere o no está respaldado por evidencia de liquidación de nivel proveedor.
Pronóstico comunitario actualNo 99.9%
Pronosticadores
978
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Community forecast
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 146 días
Desactualizado15 nov 16, 19:46 UTC31 ene 27, 23:59 UTC
Cronología de Probabilidad
Yes0.1%
No99.9%
99.9%
0.1%
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Reglas
Anti-European sentiment is running strong in the EU and it may grow stronger – strong enough to destroy it, maybe? The UK voted for Brexit and political pundits are already discussing [Nexit](http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/717904/Nexit-Dutch-turn-right-euroscepticism-Geert-Wilders-Mark-Rutte), [Frexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/frexit-nexit-or-oexit-who-will-be-next-to-leave-the-eu) and [Quitaly](https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/jul/26/italy-economy-banks-loans-crisis-europe).
- Some commentators argue that Brexit is already the end of the EU as we know it, some would say that Brexit may be fine but if any other country was to leave would spell the end of the union.
- We choose an even stricter criterion by requiring then one of the [6 original founders of the ECSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_Six) leave the union to decree the end of the EU as we know it.
- This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, one or more of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany triggers Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon by notifying the European Council of its intention to leave the union.
- It also resolves as positive if by the same deadline the entity called European Union has dissolved completely or dissolved to create a new politico-economic union of some European nations under a different name
Mercados abiertos
Geopolitics
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POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027??
- Metaculus cotiza No al 100% a fecha de 27 de abril de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027??
- Está previsto que Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027? se resuelva el 31 de enero de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027??
- Metaculus liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Anti-European sentiment is running strong in the EU and it may grow stronger – strong enough to destroy it, maybe? The UK voted for Brexit and political pundits are already discussing [Nexit](http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/717904/Nexit-Dutch-turn-right-euroscepticism-Geert-Wilders-Mark-Rutte), [Frexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/frexit-nexit-or-oexit-who-will-be-next-to-leave-the-eu) and [Quitaly](https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/jul/26/italy-economy-banks-loans-crisis-europe).