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  1. Mercados de Predicción
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  3. Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027?
Metaculus

Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027?

One-OffPolíticaGeopolíticaEurope7m
MetaculusMetaculus
Pronóstico comunitario actual
Metaculus
Sí 4%
Pronosticadores

39

Tipo de pregunta

binary

Metodología

Community forecast

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 5 minutos

27 abr 26, 15:3831 ene 27, 23:59

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Resultado elegido

Yes4%

Reglas

Anti-European sentiment is running strong in the EU and it may grow stronger – strong enough to destroy it, maybe? The UK voted for Brexit and political pundits are already discussing [Nexit](http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/717904/Nexit-Dutch-turn-right-euroscepticism-Geert-Wilders-Mark-Rutte), [Frexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/frexit-nexit-or-oexit-who-will-be-next-to-leave-the-eu) and [Quitaly](https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/jul/26/italy-economy-banks-loans-crisis-europe).

Metaculus
  • Some commentators argue that Brexit is already the end of the EU as we know it, some would say that Brexit may be fine but if any other country was to leave would spell the end of the union.
  • We choose an even stricter criterion by requiring then one of the [6 original founders of the ECSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_Six) leave the union to decree the end of the EU as we know it.
  • This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, one or more of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany triggers Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon by notifying the European Council of its intention to leave the union.
  • It also resolves as positive if by the same deadline the entity called European Union has dissolved completely or dissolved to create a new politico-economic union of some European nations under a different name

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Reglas

Anti-European sentiment is running strong in the EU and it may grow stronger – strong enough to destroy it, maybe? The UK voted for Brexit and political pundits are already discussing [Nexit](http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/717904/Nexit-Dutch-turn-right-euroscepticism-Geert-Wilders-Mark-Rutte), [Frexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/frexit-nexit-or-oexit-who-will-be-next-to-leave-the-eu) and [Quitaly](https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/jul/26/italy-economy-banks-loans-crisis-europe).

Metaculus
  • Some commentators argue that Brexit is already the end of the EU as we know it, some would say that Brexit may be fine but if any other country was to leave would spell the end of the union.
  • We choose an even stricter criterion by requiring then one of the [6 original founders of the ECSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_Six) leave the union to decree the end of the EU as we know it.
  • This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, one or more of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany triggers Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon by notifying the European Council of its intention to leave the union.
  • It also resolves as positive if by the same deadline the entity called European Union has dissolved completely or dissolved to create a new politico-economic union of some European nations under a different name