Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 87.8%
Pronosticadores
9
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 9 horas
Desactualizado30 mar 26, 2:34 UTC30 mar 29, 2:32 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
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Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketReglas
Marketing this claim: https://x.com/i/status/2038360800004559183
- will create market criteria further on
- Elon claims that there will probably be more great Optimus surgeons within three years AT SCALE than the total number of human surgeons on Earth.
- If this is even remotely true then resolving this YES or NO should be trivially easy.
- If the argument is even close whether Optimus is better than humans, even for a single construction, then I moderatelyy lean toward a NO resolution.
Mercados abiertos
AIKALSHIOpen Source market share on Sep 14th
- Above 67.5%99%
- Above 70%+22.0pt99%
- Above 72.5%96%
+6 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 63,6 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 63,6 mil €
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027-3.0pt89%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-5.0pt86%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-8.0pt79%
+9 resultados más
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-2.8pt68.6%
- ChatGPT-0.4pt15.7%
- Gemini+0.2pt6.9%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,5 M €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 15,85%
- December 31,-3.5pt84%
- November 30,-2.0pt76%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
POLYMARKETWill any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
- 1510+45.5pt100%
- 1520-9.9pt81%
- 1530-0.1pt4%
+2 resultados más
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude89.9%
- Gemini2.8%
- ChatGPT1.8%
+6 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 27,4 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 27,4 mil €
- Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?
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- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de (Musk Prediction) Will Optimus Be the World's Best Surgeon Within 3 years??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 88% a fecha de 15 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve (Musk Prediction) Will Optimus Be the World's Best Surgeon Within 3 years??
- Está previsto que (Musk Prediction) Will Optimus Be the World's Best Surgeon Within 3 years? se resuelva el 30 de marzo de 2029.
- ¿Cómo se liquida (Musk Prediction) Will Optimus Be the World's Best Surgeon Within 3 years??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Marketing this claim: https://x.com/i/status/2038360800004559183