Israel election: Who will be the next prime minister?
0.9 pts (24h)PolíticaOne-OffElecciónOriente Medio2m
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualHung Knesset (political deadlock) 55.8%+0.9ptLíder entre 7 opciones
Pronosticadores
169
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
+24.4 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 30 minutos
15 jul 26, 18:59 UTC30 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
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KalshiReglas
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the first individual who is officially sworn in as the Prime Minister of Israel by the Knesset following the next legislative election (scheduled for October 27, 2026, or sooner if a snap election is triggered beforehand).
- "Sworn In" Definition: The resolution will be determined by the first person who successfully forms a government and takes the oath of office in the Knesset.
- In the event of a rotational premiership agreement, the individual who serves as Prime Minister first will be the resolving winner.
- Hung Knesset: This option will resolve to YES if the Knesset elected in the next election fails to form a governing coalition within the legally mandated timeframe.
- A caretaker Prime Minister continuing to serve in an interim capacity during this political deadlock does not count as being sworn in for a new term.
Comparación de fuentes de predicción
- También disponible en Kalshi — Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election? · No one 48%
- También disponible en Manifold Markets — Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Gadi Eisenkot 56%
- También disponible en Limitless — Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after next election? · Benjamin Netanyahu 47%
- También disponible en PredictIt — Who will be the Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election? · Benjamin Netanyahu 63%