Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
In-flight Raptor re-light by Q2 2025 100%Líder entre 7 opciones
Pronosticadores
15
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado29 oct 24, 6:43 UTC2 sept 28, 6:59 UTC
Tendencias
100%
100%
0%
0%
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Is Eric Berger right about how the Starliner saga will play out?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a successful orbital rocket launch from UK soil this decade? (Eric Berger prediction)
Manifold MarketsWill Polymarket be right about every Fed decision in 2026?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiBest AI in Sep 2026?
KalshiLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketReglas
This question is based on the following article by Eric Berger: https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/10/spacex-has-caught-a-massive-rocket-so-whats-next/.
- Please see the article for more specifics about the scenario of each milestone.
- Update 2025-10-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has updated the resolution criteria based on user feedback.
- The timing requirements for milestones have been clarified to use "before" rather than "by" for at least the first three items, addressing whether deadlines refer to the start or end of specified time periods.
Mercados abiertos
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volumen total
- 224,7 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 160,5 mil €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 344,9 mil €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 resultados más
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Is Eric Berger right about the future of Starship??
- Manifold Markets cotiza In-flight Raptor re-light by Q2 2025 al 100% a fecha de 9 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Is Eric Berger right about the future of Starship??
- Está previsto que Is Eric Berger right about the future of Starship? se resuelva el 2 de septiembre de 2028.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Is Eric Berger right about the future of Starship??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This question is based on the following article by Eric Berger: https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/10/spacex-has-caught-a-massive-rocket-so-whats-next/.