In what year will AI achieve a score of 85% or higher on the SimpleBench leaderboard?
17.8 pts (24h)IAOne-Off6aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual2026 97.8%+17.8ptLíder entre 8 opciones
Pronosticadores
39
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
+17.8 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 10 minutos
6 jul 25, 10:341 ene 33, 23:59
Tendencias
Reglas
SimpleBench is a 200‑item multiple‑choice test designed to probe everyday human reasoning that still eludes frontier LLMs, including spatio‑temporal reasoning, social intelligence and linguistic “trick” questions.
- Unlike most other benchmarks, humans still outperform AI on the SimpleBench.
- State of play:
- • Human reference accuracy: 83.7 %
- • 2025 AI accuracy (Gemini 2.5 Pro): 62.4 %
- Why this milestone matters
Mercados abiertos
AI
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra released by which date?
- September 30-0.1pt99%
- October 31+0.6pt99%
- September 15+0.6pt98%
+8 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 1 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 457,4 mil €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-4.0pt59.2%
- ChatGPT-1.3pt24.3%
- Grok+0.9pt7.8%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 8,7 M €
POLYMARKETGPT-6 released by which date?
- October 31,+9.1pt100%
- November 30,+6.8pt100%
- December 31,+5.5pt100%
+10 resultados más
POLYMARKETOpenAI's Astra released on?
- September 4+27.7pt37%
- September 17+22.2pt23%
- September 24+22.1pt23%
+27 resultados más
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude-10.0pt76.5%
- ChatGPT+5.0pt16.7%
- Gemini+2.0pt2.9%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 149,2 mil €
KALSHIWhen will OpenAI release GPT-6?
- Before Sep 16, 2026+14.0pt99%
- Before Oct 1, 2026+9.0pt99%
- Before Nov 1, 2026+6.0pt99%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- Which week will OpenAI release Astra?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- When will OpenAI release Astra?
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- AI capability growth this year?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Benjamin Bonzi vs Ignacio Buse
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de In what year will AI achieve a score of 85% or higher on the SimpleBench leaderboard??
- Manifold Markets cotiza 2026 al 98% a fecha de 4 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve In what year will AI achieve a score of 85% or higher on the SimpleBench leaderboard??
- Está previsto que In what year will AI achieve a score of 85% or higher on the SimpleBench leaderboard? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2033.
- ¿Cómo se liquida In what year will AI achieve a score of 85% or higher on the SimpleBench leaderboard??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: SimpleBench is a 200‑item multiple‑choice test designed to probe everyday human reasoning that still eludes frontier LLMs, including spatio‑temporal reasoning, social intelligence and linguistic “trick” questions.