¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GSO benchmark??

Manifold Markets cotiza 2027 al 62.3% a fecha de 28 de octubre de 2026.

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GSO benchmark?

IAOne-Off6a

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptable

Pronóstico comunitario actual

2027 62.3%

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multiple choice

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Cambio 7d

0.0 pts

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 5 horas

Desactualizado

13 jul 25, 18:02 UTC1 ene 33, 23:59 UTC

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Reglas

The GSO (Global Software Optimization) benchmark tests whether large-language-model agents can act like real performance engineers.

It extracts 102 optimisation tasks from the commit histories of 10 production code-bases spanning C, C++, Rust, Go, Java, and Python.
For each task the agent receives the full repo, a correctness test-suite, and a runtime profiler, then must submit a single patch that (i) keeps all tests green and (ii) reaches ≥ 95 % of the speed-up achieved by the human expert commit.
The headline metric, Opt @ 1, is simply the fraction of tasks cleared on the very first try; no retries, no cherry-picking.
All patches are rebuilt and timed in a sandbox so scores are reproducible and publicly displayed on the GSO leaderboard.
State of play (July 2025)