Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
Helped with >80% confidence 64.1%Líder entre 5 opciones
Pronosticadores
10
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 14 horas
Desactualizado30 mar 23, 2:17 UTC1 ene 31, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Reglas
https://time.com/6266923/ai-eliezer-yudkowsky-open-letter-not-enough/
Mercados abiertos
AI
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 5.6%+8.0pt99%
- Above 2.7%99%
- Above 4.5%99%
+6 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 267,3 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 95,6 mil €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+0.3pt69.2%
- ChatGPT-1.1pt13.5%
- Gemini+1.3pt10.6%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 10,1 M €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-5.0pt72%
- December 15,+4.5pt65%
- November 30,-7.0pt44%
+7 resultados más
KALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.65%+4.0pt99%
- Above 2.05%99%
- Above 2.55%99%
+6 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 272 mil €
- Volumen 24h
KALSHIDeepSeek market share this week
- Above 24.3%+8.0pt99%
- Above 24%+6.0pt99%
- Above 23.6%99%
+6 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 211,1 mil €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- $2.0–$2.25T-0.4pt25.3%
- $2.25–$2.5T-5.0pt20%
- $1.75–$2.0T-3.0pt16.8%
+7 resultados más
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best AI this week
- Next Claude Opus released on?
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by which date?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de In 2030, will Yudkowsky think his 2023 Time op-ed helped or harmed our chances??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Helped with >80% confidence al 64% a fecha de 20 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve In 2030, will Yudkowsky think his 2023 Time op-ed helped or harmed our chances??
- Está previsto que In 2030, will Yudkowsky think his 2023 Time op-ed helped or harmed our chances? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2031.
- ¿Cómo se liquida In 2030, will Yudkowsky think his 2023 Time op-ed helped or harmed our chances??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: https://time.com/6266923/ai-eliezer-yudkowsky-open-letter-not-enough/