In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?
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Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No 74.5%
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147
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Actualizado hace 11 horas
Desactualizado20 feb 23, 22:35 UTC1 ene 28, 23:59 UTC
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PolymarketReglas
That is, will Google, Facebook, Apple, etc be ahead of OpenAI, Anthropic, etc, in artificial intelligence?
- I will grade this as true if it seems obvious that they are ahead in most fields of AI.
- This will be based on technology; not commercialization; if OpenAI has an advanced AI sitting in a lab, but Google has a slightly weaker one that has made $10 billion, OpenAI will still win.
- Anything developed in-house at DeepMind will be considered to come from an AI-specific company; anything developed at the rest of Google will be Big Tech.
- If the distinction has blurred by 2028, I might resolve this as N/A if that becomes the deciding factor.
- If a Chinese or other foreign company is in the lead, I will resolve this based on whether they are the Chinese equivalent of Big Tech or a new AI specific company.
Mercados abiertos
AIKALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 5.6%+8.0pt99%
- Above 2.7%99%
- Above 4.5%99%
+6 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 267,3 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 95,6 mil €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+0.3pt69.2%
- ChatGPT-1.1pt13.5%
- Gemini+1.3pt10.6%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 10,1 M €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-5.0pt72%
- December 15,+4.5pt65%
- November 30,-7.0pt44%
+7 resultados más
KALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.65%+4.0pt99%
- Above 2.05%99%
- Above 2.55%99%
+6 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 272 mil €
- Volumen 24h
KALSHIDeepSeek market share this week
- Above 24.3%+8.0pt99%
- Above 24%+6.0pt99%
- Above 23.6%99%
+6 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 211,1 mil €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- $2.0–$2.25T-0.4pt25.3%
- $2.25–$2.5T-5.0pt20%
- $1.75–$2.0T-3.0pt16.8%
+7 resultados más
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 75% a fecha de 20 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology??
- Está previsto que In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2028.
- ¿Cómo se liquida In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: That is, will Google, Facebook, Apple, etc be ahead of OpenAI, Anthropic, etc, in artificial intelligence?