In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?
EntretenimientoIAOne-Off1a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 86.1%
Pronosticadores
386
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 22 minutos
28 ene 24, 4:34 UTC2 ene 28, 7:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt, with human aid?
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt, with human aid?
Manifold MarketsTime's Person of the Year for 2026
KalshiTIME Person of the Year 2026
PolymarketReglas
Same as the main market but the AI must only be at the level of the worst filmmakers, rather than the best.
- So instead of a Marvel movie level of quality, think The Room level of quality.
- That's the yardstick that I will be using.
- Alternatively it can be any other well-known bad movie, like Birdemic or Who Killed Captain Alex.
- It doesn't need to have the "so bad it's good" qualities of The Room, but it needs to have a minimally coherent plot structure and cinematography.
- It must not be too painful for humans to watch the entire thing, and it needs to have the basics like characters say and do things that advance the plot, at least usually.