Manifold MarketsCerradoSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableEste mercado se resolvió: Yes (14.3%)
Resuelto: 19 ago 2026, 2:37
Resolución verificada por el proveedor
CoinRithm tiene evidencia del ganador y del momento de liquidación respaldada por el proveedor para este mercado.
Pronóstico comunitario actualNo 85.7%
Pronosticadores
41
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado ayer
Desactualizado26 abr 26, 5:2219 ago 26, 2:37
Cronología de Probabilidad
Yes14.3%
No85.7%
85.7%
14.3%
Reglas
I remember on a recent podcast, I heard someone say "everyone will realize they're now living in the future when they start seeing robots walking past them in a few more months"
- This market resolves YES if I'm walking around and a humanoid robot casually crosses my path.
- Little sweeper robots are not enough, nor are the slightly more human looking ones at sushi restaurants
- I will not purposely seek one out, and I will not bet on this market
- Update 2026-04-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator does travel and plans to visit Las Vegas and other Tier 1 cities within the year, increasing the chances of encountering a humanoid robot.
- Update 2026-04-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A humanoid robot must be able to move its arms to do things (not just a mannequin on wheels).
Mercados abiertos
AI
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Feb 1, 2027+7.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt93%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt92%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 1,3 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 255,6 mil €
GEMINIBTC price on August 21
- $72,500 or above97.5%
- $73,000 or above97%
- $73,500 or above97%
+36 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 143,6 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 130,5 mil €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by __?
- December 31,+2.0pt89%
- October 31,+8.5pt82%
- October 15,-3.5pt50%
+4 resultados más
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
- ↑$1.25T-0.9pt97%
+10 resultados más
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of August?
- Alibaba-1.0pt95%
- Company A50%
- Other50%
+22 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.6pt68.6%
- Grok-2.1pt10.5%
- ChatGPT-2.8pt9.5%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 7,8 M €
- Best AI this week
- Next Mythos-Class Model released by which date?
- OpenAI’s Astra released by which date?
- In which month will Anthropic IPO?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- BMW Championship Winner
- XRP price on August 21
- XRP price on August 31
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- BTC price on August 31
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Humanoid robot walking around me within a year??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 86% a fecha de 19 de agosto de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Humanoid robot walking around me within a year??
- Está previsto que Humanoid robot walking around me within a year? se resuelva el 19 de agosto de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Humanoid robot walking around me within a year??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: I remember on a recent podcast, I heard someone say "everyone will realize they're now living in the future when they start seeing robots walking past them in a few more months"