Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 26 oct 2026, 7:03 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualNo 62.5%
Pronosticadores
1
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 8 horas
Desactualizado11 jun 24, 7:13 UTC2 ene 35, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
If a vaccine for HIV is approved by the FDA and available for commercial use before January 1st 2035 midnight Eastern Time, this market will resolve to yes.
- Emergency Use Authorization will not be sufficient to resolve this market to yes, only full approval.
- Additionally, the vaccine must be released to the public and commercially available to certain members of the population.
- It need not be accessible to everyone, a release limited to certain age groups or otherwise restricted is still sufficient.
- A vaccine for either the treatment or prevention of HIV is sufficient.
- This means that either a vaccine treating a patient who has already contracted HIV, or a vaccine designed to prevent one from contracting HIV in the first place will both be sufficient to resolve this market.
