Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual10h - 12h 29.3%Líder entre 10 opciones
Pronosticadores
16
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 8 horas
Desactualizado5 may 26, 20:48 UTC30 sept 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Reglas
This market will resolve to the highest 50% time horizon, as reported by METR, for the first GPT 5.5 model to appear on METR's graph.
- GPT 5.5.x variants (Pro, Codex) count for the purpose of this market.
- GPT 5.4 or earlier would not count.
- GPT 5.6 would not count.
- 50% time horizon is a measure of AI autonomy based on the length of tasks that AI can do: roughly, it is the time that humans take to complete tasks that an AI system can successfully do 50% of the time.
- See METR's Time Horizon 1.1 update for the technical definition.
Mercados abiertos
AI
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volumen total
- 224,7 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 160,5 mil €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 344,9 mil €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 resultados más
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de GPT 5.5 METR 50% time horizon?
- Manifold Markets cotiza 10h - 12h al 29% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve GPT 5.5 METR 50% time horizon?
- Está previsto que GPT 5.5 METR 50% time horizon se resuelva el 30 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida GPT 5.5 METR 50% time horizon?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This market will resolve to the highest 50% time horizon, as reported by METR, for the first GPT 5.5 model to appear on METR's graph.