Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 53.5%
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 32 minutos
26 oct 25, 19:27 UTC31 dic 31, 23:59 UTC
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KalshiReglas
Resolution: YES if, by 00:00 UTC on Jan 1, 2032, at least one prophylactic EBV vaccine (an active immunization product) has received regulatory authorization for use to prevent EBV infection or EBV‑associated disease (e.g., infectious mononucleosis, post‑transplant lymphoproliferative disease) from any of the following: FDA (U.S.), EMA (EU), MHRA (U.K.), PMDA (Japan), NMPA (China), Health Canada, TGA (Australia), or if the product appears on the WHO Emergency Use Listing (EUL) or the WHO prequalification (PQ) list for EBV prevention.
- What counts:
- Prophylactic EBV vaccines intended to prevent infection and/or clinical disease (e.g., Moderna’s mRNA‑1189; ferritin‑nanoparticle vaccines; other platforms).
- Approvals may be for specific age/risk groups or limited indications (e.g., prevention of mono in adolescents, or prevention of EBV disease in transplant recipients).
- Any formal regulatory approval/authorization meeting the above criteria counts.
- What doesn’t count: