Eliezer Yudkowsky is impressed by a machine learning model, and believes that the model may be very helpful for alignment research, by the end of 2026
One-OffIATecnologíaCiencia3m
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No 87%
Pronosticadores
65
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 16 horas
Desactualizado5 dic 22, 6:41 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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KalshiReglas
Let's operationalize it this way:
- "If Eliezer either expresses that the model may be very helpful for alignment research, or Eliezer strongly implies that he feels this way (eg. by indicating that it is more useful than an additional MIRI-level researcher), then we consider this market resolved to YES."