Eliezer Yudkowsky is impressed by a machine learning model, and believes that the model may be very helpful for alignment research, by the end of 2026
One-OffIATecnologíaCiencia2mManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 26 oct 2026, 7:45 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualNo 88.6%
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66
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
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Pronóstico
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Actualizado hace 7 horas
Desactualizado5 dic 22, 6:41 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsReglas
Let's operationalize it this way:
- "If Eliezer either expresses that the model may be very helpful for alignment research, or Eliezer strongly implies that he feels this way (eg. by indicating that it is more useful than an additional MIRI-level researcher), then we consider this market resolved to YES."
