Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 21 oct 2026, 11:00 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualNo 94.7%
Pronosticadores
17
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 20 horas
Desactualizado13 jul 26, 11:06 UTC1 ene 50, 12:04 UTC
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PolymarketReglas
Resolves YES if strong evidence emerges that Russia assassinated Lindsey Graham before January 1st 2050.
- “Russia” includes the Russian state, its government, military, intelligence services, or agents or proxies acting under their direction or with their authorization. “Assassinated” means Lindsey Graham was intentionally killed for political, strategic, or state-related purposes.
- Strong evidence includes, but is not limited to:
- A formal attribution by the United States government or another highly credible government;
- A court judgment or criminal conviction establishing Russian responsibility;
- A clear consensus among multiple reputable, independent investigations based on corroborated documentary, forensic, intelligence, or eyewitness evidence;