Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No 88%
Pronosticadores
19
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado5 ene 24, 20:45 UTC1 ene 41, 5:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?
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KalshiWhen will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
KalshiWhich countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
KalshiReglas
This market resolves once we have a definitive answer to this question.
- (i.e. "I've looked at all notable evidence presented by both sides and have upwards of 98% confidence that a certain conclusion is correct, and it doesn't seem likely that any further relevant evidence will be forthcoming any time soon.")
- This will likely not occur until many years after HIV is no longer a subject of active political contention, motivations for various actors to distort or hide inconvenient evidence have died down, and a scientific consensus has emerged on the subject.
- I will be conferring with the community extensively before resolving this market, to ensure I haven't missed anything and aren't being overconfident in one direction or another.
- (For comparison, the level of evidence in favor of anthropogenic climate change would be sufficient, despite the existence of a few doubts here and there.)
- If we never reach a point where I can safely be that confident either way, it'll remain open indefinitely.
Mercados abiertos
Sports
POLYMARKETUS Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen
- Michelsen Total Sets: O/U 3.5+34.5pt100%
- Michelsen Set 3 Winner+45.5pt100%
- Michelsen Total Sets: O/U 4.5+70.5pt100%
+25 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 6 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 5,9 M €
POLYMARKETUEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
- Barcelona17.9%
- Arsenal15.1%
- Bayern Munich13.2%
+33 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 24,5 M €
KALSHIHouston vs Philadelphia
- Houston+48.0pt91.1%
- Philadelphia-48.0pt8.9%
- Volumen total
- 2,4 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIUS Open Men's Singles Winner
- Carlos Alcaraz+1.0pt58%
- Alexander Zverev+4.0pt26%
- Ben Shelton+2.0pt9%
+45 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 24,6 M €
KALSHIBrace vs Sorribes Tormo
- Cadence Brace52%
- Sara Sorribes Tormo48%
- Volumen total
- 1,9 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,7 M €
KALSHIShelton vs Alcaraz
- Carlos Alcaraz-1.0pt77.2%
- Ben Shelton+1.0pt22.8%
- Volumen total
- 1,8 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,6 M €
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Did HIV come from a laboratory??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 88% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Did HIV come from a laboratory??
- Está previsto que Did HIV come from a laboratory? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2041.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Did HIV come from a laboratory??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This market resolves once we have a definitive answer to this question.