Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 93.8%
Pronosticadores
26
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 2 horas
Desactualizado24 nov 23, 17:25 UTC1 ene 40, 8:00 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?
Manifold MarketsWill the VLA15 Lyme Disease vaccine "pass" its phase 3 human trial?
Manifold MarketsDid HIV come from a laboratory?
Manifold MarketsWhich countries will report an Ebola disease case before October?
KalshiHow many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?
PolymarketNew pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketReglas
This market resolves once we have a definitive answer to this question.
- (i.e. "I've looked at all notable evidence presented by both sides and have upwards of 98% confidence that a certain conclusion is correct, and it doesn't seem likely that any further relevant evidence will be forthcoming any time soon.")
- This will likely not occur until many years after Lyme disease is no longer a subject of active political contention, and motivations for various actors to distort or hide inconvenient evidence have died down.
- I will be conferring with the community extensivly before resolving this market, to ensure I haven't missed anything and aren't being overconfident in one direction or another.
- (For comparison, the level of evidence in favor of anthropogenic climate change would be sufficient, despite the existance of a few doubts here and there.)
- If we never reach a point where I can safely be that confident either way, it'll remain open indefinitely.
Mercados abiertos
SportsKALSHISabalenka vs Noskova
- Aryna Sabalenka+6.0pt74.5%
- Linda Noskova-5.0pt25.5%
- Volumen total
- 12,2 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 11,2 M €
POLYMARKETCounter-Strike: G2 vs Astralis (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group A
- 2 Winner+33.0pt100%
- O/U 2.5 Games+57.0pt100%
- 1 Rounds Handicap: Astralis (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5)100%
+29 resultados más
POLYMARKETUEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
- Barcelona18.1%
- Arsenal15.2%
- Paris Saint-Germain13.3%
+33 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 24 M €
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Aryna Sabalenka vs Linda Noskova Quarter Finals match
- Aryna Sabalenka72.6%
- Linda Noskova27.4%
- Volumen total
- 15,6 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,9 M €
KALSHIUS Open Men's Singles Winner
- Carlos Alcaraz57%
- Alexander Zverev+5.0pt26%
- Ben Shelton9%
+45 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 24,1 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,9 M €
KALSHIClub Brugge vs Aston Villa
- Aston Villa+49.0pt87.1%
- Tie-17.0pt9.9%
- Club Brugge-31.0pt3%
- Volumen total
- 2,1 M €
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Villarreal CF
- US Open WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Linda Noskova
- Tiafoe vs Michelsen
- Genoa: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Francesco Ferrari
- United Arab Emirates vs Bangladesh
- 2027 Pro Football Champion
- MLB: Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers (Sep 7, 2026)
- MLB: New York Mets vs Miami Marlins (Sep 7, 2026)
- Amgen Irish Open Winner
- MLB: Arizona Diamondbacks vs Kansas City Royals (Sep 7, 2026)
- Real Madrid vs Inter
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Did Lyme disease come from a laboratory??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 94% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Did Lyme disease come from a laboratory??
- Está previsto que Did Lyme disease come from a laboratory? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2040.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Did Lyme disease come from a laboratory??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This market resolves once we have a definitive answer to this question.