Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoAviso de calidad de datosDatos obsoletos
Datos del 8 jul 2026, 16:33 UTC · política pm-quality-2
Pronóstico comunitario actualGavin Newsom 21.7%-0.1%Líder entre 8 opciones
Pronosticadores
13
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado anteayer
Desactualizado18 may 26, 11:1515 ago 28, 23:59
Tendencias
Solo fondos simulados, sin dinero realNo es asesoramiento financiero
Resultado elegido
Gavin Newsom22%
Comparar plataformas· Other
Ordenado por calidad de mercado, luego liquidez y volumen de 24 h| Plataforma | Calidad | Probabilidad | vs. referencia | Vol 24h | Liq | Actualidad | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketMejor en general80% de coincidencia · verificado | Media | 0% | — | 993 mil € | 62 M € | hace 11 minutos | Abrir → |
 Kalshi78% de coincidencia · auto | Media | 19% | — | 342,6 mil € | 87,7 M € | hace 6 minutos | Abrir → |
 Smarkets64% de coincidencia · vinculado | Baja | 21% | — | 0,9 € | 0 € | hace 3 minutos | Abrir → |
 Limitless80% de coincidencia · verificado | Baja | 23% | — | 0 € | 0 € | hace 4 minutos | Abrir → |
 Myriad78% de coincidencia · vinculado | Baja | 1% | — | 0 € | 0 € | hace 3 minutos | Abrir → |
| Manifold Markets80% de coincidencia · vinculado | — | 20% | — | — | — | hace 30 días | Abrir → |
| Manifold MarketsEsta página | — | 34% | — | — | — | anteayer |
También disponible en Polymarket
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
2a
-0.4%19%
-0.9%14%
-2.1%10%
+125 resultados más
73 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidez
Volumen total1077,6 M €
Volumen 24h993 mil €
POLYMARKETTambién disponible en Manifold Markets
Democratic Nominee for 2028 Presidential Election
1a
7.1%
20%
6%
+14 resultados más
Pronóstico comunitario21 pronosticadoresTipo: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSTambién disponible en Limitless
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
2a
23%
13.9%
5.5%
+3 resultados más
28 • Baja calidadSpread desconocidoBaja liquidezMercado poco profundo
Volumen total10,7 mil €
Volumen 24h0 €
LIMITLESSTambién disponible en Kalshi
2028 Democratic presidential nominee
0.1%2a
-0.1%0%
-0.1%1%
+0.1%4%
+43 resultados más
73 • Calidad mediaSpread amplioAlta liquidez
Volumen total128,9 M €
Volumen 24h342,6 mil €
KALSHITambién disponible en Myriad
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
4.7%73a
+0.1%48.3%
-0.1%4.5%
-0.1%22.1%
+29 resultados más
28 • Baja calidadSpread desconocidoBaja liquidezMercado poco profundo
Volumen total0 €
Volumen 24h0 €
MYRIADTambién disponible en Smarkets
Democratic Presidential Nominee
13.5%
0.1%
2.6%
+19 resultados más
32 • Baja calidadSpread desconocidoBaja liquidezMercado poco profundo
Volumen total9,2 mil €
Volumen 24h0,9 €
SMARKETSReglas
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the individual who officially secures the Democratic Party nomination for President of the United States in the 2028 election.
- The market resolves based on the results of the 2028 Democratic National Convention.
- If a candidate other than those listed officially receives the nomination, the "Other" option will resolve to YES.
- In the event that the Democratic Party fails to field a presidential nominee, or if the election is cancelled, the market will resolve N/A.
- Official confirmation will be sourced from the Democratic National Committee (https://democrats.org/) and major news outlets (e.g., Associated Press, Reuters).
Las probabilidades pueden diferir debido a diferentes estructuras de mercado, comisiones y grupos de participantes.
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Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the individual who officially secures the Democratic Party nomination for President of the United States in the 2028 election.
- The market resolves based on the results of the 2028 Democratic National Convention.
- If a candidate other than those listed officially receives the nomination, the "Other" option will resolve to YES.
- In the event that the Democratic Party fails to field a presidential nominee, or if the election is cancelled, the market will resolve N/A.
- Official confirmation will be sourced from the Democratic National Committee (https://democrats.org/) and major news outlets (e.g., Associated Press, Reuters).