Date first peer reviewed manuscript in Cell, Nature, or Science concludes SARS2 lab origin more likely than not (Set)

One-OffCiencia Health & Medicine3m

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptable

Pronóstico comunitario actual

Never or after 1/1/2030 82.7%

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Pronosticadores

Tipo de pregunta

multiple choice

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Cambio 7d

0.0 pts

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 15 horas

Desactualizado

8 ene 25, 14:26 UTC1 ene 27, 0:00 UTC

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Before 2026

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Set version of question here (with more options): https://manifold.markets/zcoli/date-first-peer-reviewed-manuscript

This version was created in order to be able to resolve options prior to 2029.
The reference date is the date a peer reviewed manuscript first appears online at the journal website or is otherwise published by any of these three journals after being accepted for publication.
Any peer reviewed manuscript type is acceptable.
If lab leak likelihood is generally accepted based on data and analysis elsewhere, inevitably this will be cited approvingly in a peer reviewed manuscript in one of these journals shortly thereafter.
Any statement equivalent to finding over 50% likelihood for SARS-CoV-2 originating in a laboratory that reflects author(s) conclusions and is published following peer review qualifies.

Reportar un problema de datos de este mercado

Date first peer reviewed manuscript in Cell, Nature, or Science concludes SARS2 lab origin more likely than not (Set)

One-OffCiencia Health & Medicine3m

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptable

Pronóstico comunitario actual

Never or after 1/1/2030 82.7%

Líder entre 6 opciones

Pronosticadores

Tipo de pregunta

multiple choice

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Cambio 7d

0.0 pts

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 15 horas

Desactualizado

8 ene 25, 14:26 UTC1 ene 27, 0:00 UTC

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Before 2026

Mercados Relacionados

Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.

Will a peer-reviewed paper analyzing UAP sensor data be published in a Nature-family journal before January 1, 2027?

Manifold Markets

Peer-reviewed paper in 2026 shows mycelial compounds effective against respiratory diseases?

Manifold Markets

Will China unveil a peer reviewed surgical cure for Alzheimers by the end of 2026?

Manifold Markets

Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?

Kalshi

Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?

Polymarket

When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?

Kalshi

Reglas

Set version of question here (with more options): https://manifold.markets/zcoli/date-first-peer-reviewed-manuscript

This version was created in order to be able to resolve options prior to 2029.
The reference date is the date a peer reviewed manuscript first appears online at the journal website or is otherwise published by any of these three journals after being accepted for publication.
Any peer reviewed manuscript type is acceptable.
If lab leak likelihood is generally accepted based on data and analysis elsewhere, inevitably this will be cited approvingly in a peer reviewed manuscript in one of these journals shortly thereafter.
Any statement equivalent to finding over 50% likelihood for SARS-CoV-2 originating in a laboratory that reflects author(s) conclusions and is published following peer review qualifies.

Reportar un problema de datos de este mercado

Preguntas frecuentes

¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Date first peer reviewed manuscript in Cell, Nature, or Science concludes SARS2 lab origin more likely than not (Set)?: Manifold Markets cotiza Never or after 1/1/2030 al 83% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
¿Cuándo se resuelve Date first peer reviewed manuscript in Cell, Nature, or Science concludes SARS2 lab origin more likely than not (Set)?: Está previsto que Date first peer reviewed manuscript in Cell, Nature, or Science concludes SARS2 lab origin more likely than not (Set) se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2027.
¿Cómo se liquida Date first peer reviewed manuscript in Cell, Nature, or Science concludes SARS2 lab origin more likely than not (Set)?: Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Set version of question here (with more options): https://manifold.markets/zcoli/date-first-peer-reviewed-manuscript

Date first peer reviewed manuscript in Cell, Nature, or Science concludes SARS2 lab origin more likely than not (Set)

Date first peer reviewed manuscript in Cell, Nature, or Science concludes SARS2 lab origin more likely than not (Set)

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