Will an AI system be credited as the lead author of a paper in Nature or Science before 1 January 2030?
IAOne-Off3a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 68.2%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 14 horas
Desactualizado13 oct 26, 23:02 UTC31 dic 29, 23:59 UTC
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Resolves YES if, before 1 January 2030, a paper published in Nature or Science lists an AI system (not a person) as first or lead author, or the journal's editorial note describes the AI as the paper's primary author.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- Policy statements, news pieces and acknowledgements don't count.
- Background: in my documentary series THE TAKEOFF, this happens in April 2029.
- The series is a labelled forecast, one episode per year from 2026 to 2046.
- I'm making this market to see whether forecasters think I'm too fast.
