Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 26 oct 2026, 0:09 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualOther 98.3%Líder entre 9 opciones
Pronosticadores
23
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
+0.1 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 2 horas
Desactualizado2 feb 26, 13:06 UTC30 oct 26, 22:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Claude Opus 5 METR 50% time horizon
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Manifold MarketsNext Claude Opus (5.6+) released by which date?
PolymarketWhat will Claude Opus's output token price hit in 2026?
PolymarketReglas
This market will resolve to the highest 50% time horizon, as reported by METR, for the first Claude Opus 5 thinking model to appear on METR's graph.
- Claude Opus 5.1 or 6 counts for the purpose of this market, if 5 is skipped. 4.6 or 4.7 would not count.
- Sonnet would not count.
- 50% time horizon is a measure of AI autonomy based on the length of tasks that AI can do: roughly, it is the time that humans take to complete tasks that an AI system can successfully do 50% of the time.
- See METR's "Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks" for the technical definition.
- Claude 3.7 Sonnet, released in February 2025, was the leading model with a 50% horizon of 59 minutes.
