Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 25 oct 2026, 0:38 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualBefore 3/1/2027 55.8%Líder entre 8 opciones
Pronosticadores
22
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 2 horas
Desactualizado14 jun 26, 21:28 UTC2 ago 27, 3:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Reglas
Resolution criteria
- Each answer option in this independent multiple-choice market represents a date threshold.
- An option will resolve to YES if Anthropic officially releases any model from the "Claude 6" family before the specified date in UTC, and NO otherwise.
- "Claude 6" Family Release: This refers to the first official release (including general availability, developer beta, or limited-partner/preview access) of any model officially designated as part of the "Claude 6" generation (e.g., Claude 6 Sonnet, Claude 6 Opus, Claude 6 Haiku, Claude Fable 6, Claude Mythos 6, or a standalone "Claude 6").
- Resolution Logic: If a release occurs, all options with a date after the release date will resolve to YES, and options with a date before or on the release date will resolve to NO.
- For example, if Claude 6 is released on September 15, 2026, "the named outcome" resolves to NO, while "the named outcome" and all subsequent options resolve to YES.
