Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No 92.9%
Pronosticadores
17
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 20 horas
Desactualizado25 nov 22, 2:05 UTC31 dic 29, 5:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Severe nuclear accident in the Zaporizhzhia plant in 2026?
FutuurIAEA-confirmed radioactive contamination accident by the end of 2026?
FutuurWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill a millennium problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsAI solves Millennium Prize Problem in September 2026?
Manifold MarketsReglas
This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that a civilian nuclear energy accident takes place in the US before 2030 which is judged to be responsible for at least one death within one year.
- Close date updated to 2029-12-30 11:59 pm
Mercados abiertos
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+11.2pt86%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029-33.9pt55%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 227,4 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 95,3 mil €
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 202813%
- Before 2027+0.4pt5%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 28,6 M €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30-0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 resultados más
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
- Before 2030-19.0pt44%
+1 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 109,1 mil €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+0.6pt4%
- Volumen total
- 1,6 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 8 mil €
KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0+3.0pt46.1%
- Above 1+20.0pt38.5%
- Above 2-6.0pt7.7%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Civilian nuclear accident in the US before 2030?
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 93% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Civilian nuclear accident in the US before 2030?
- Está previsto que Civilian nuclear accident in the US before 2030 se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2029.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Civilian nuclear accident in the US before 2030?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that a civilian nuclear energy accident takes place in the US before 2030 which is judged to be responsible for at least one death within one year.