Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualBy Jan 1st 2030 39%Líder entre 5 opciones
Pronosticadores
9
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 7 horas
Desactualizado24 mar 25, 2:29 UTC2 ene 30, 0:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
[Carlini questions] Chance one can purchase off-the-shelf robot for under 100k$ that can do manipulation
Manifold Markets[Carlini questions] Chance off-the-shelf AI system can play as well as casual player on arbitrary board game given rules
Manifold Markets[Carlini questions] AI system can produce a high-quality live-action hour-long movie given a rough script
Manifold Markets[Carlini questions] Open-weight SOTA AI system that can reliably withstand jailbreaking and "prompt injection" attacks
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketReglas
Resolution Criteria:
- This pause could come in the form of a government mandate, court order (e.g., declaring models copyright infringement), blackmail, organized protest, etc. What matters is the outcome: new higly-capability models are not being trained because of some external force has prevented them.
- Motivation and Context:
- Several researchershave called for a "pause" on AI development, in order to allow society (and safety research) to catch up with the rapid pace of AI development.
- So far this hasn't happened, and it's looked like it won't happen any time soon.
- Will it ever happen?
