[Carlini questions] Chance off-the-shelf AI system can play as well as casual player on arbitrary board game given rules
One-OffIA3a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 26 oct 2026, 10:02 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualBy 2030 93.2%
Pronosticadores
7
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 7 horas
Desactualizado24 mar 25, 1:49 UTC1 ene 30, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
Full question: "chance that an off-the-shelf AI system can, if provided the rules to an arbitrary turn-based board game, play roughly as well as a casual player of the game"
- Resolution Criteria:
- A "casual player" is defined as someone who has, e.g., played similar games frequently, and has played this game for several hours, but has not played it competitively or studied strategy.
- Think, family game night playing Monopoly.
- I will consider only board games that are typical family-friendly games you might find in a non-specialty store.
- The AI is not allowed to be fine-tuned on this specific game by a human.
