[Carlini questions] AI system can produce a high-quality live-action hour-long movie given a rough script
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Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 25 oct 2026, 18:26 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualBy Jan 1st 2030 66.1%Líder entre 5 opciones
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 7 horas
Desactualizado24 mar 25, 2:23 UTC1 ene 30, 23:59 UTC
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Resolution Criteria:
- A "high quality" movie is defined as a movie that a general audience would have a hard time distinguishing from a movie produced by a competent human today.
- I don't need it to be the best movie of the year, or even a top-100.
- But it should be something you could imagine a popular streaming service buying and putting on their platform.
- A "rough script" is, for example, what someone would write as a Wikipedia summary of a movie.
- The model doesn't have to develop the main plot points or character arcs, but it does have to fill in the details and, most importantly, create all of the visuals.
