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  1. Mercados de Predicción
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  3. By when will AIs perform at least as well as humans on GAIA?
By when will AIs perform at least as well as humans on GAIA?

By when will AIs perform at least as well as humans on GAIA?

IATecnologíaOne-Off9a
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsSin KYC
Pronóstico comunitario actual
Before 2024-06-01
Before 2024-06-01 0%
Líder entre 7 opciones
Pronosticadores

26

Tipo de pregunta

multiple choice

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 7 días

Desactualizado
21 feb 24, 4:362 ene 36, 7:59

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad
Before 2024-06-01
Before 2024-06-01
0%
Before 2025-01-01
Before 2025-01-01
0%

Resultado elegido

Before 2027-01-0192%

Reglas

The GAIA benchmark (https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.12983) aims to test for the next level of capability for AI agents.

Manifold Markets
  • Quoting from the paper: "GAIA proposes real-world questions that require a set of fundamental abilities such as reasoning, multi-modality handling, web browsing, and generally tool-use proficiency.
  • GAIA questions are conceptually simple for humans yet challenging for most advanced AIs: we show that human respondents obtain 92% vs. 15% for GPT-4 equipped with plugins."
  • This market will resolve based on when an AI system performs as well or better than humans on all 3 of the different levels of the benchmark.
  • I'll use the numbers from Table 4 in paper: 93.9% on level 1, 91.8% on level 2, and 87.3% on level 3.
  • (I'm using the conjunction of all 3 levels rather than the average to be somewhat conservative about this level being achieved.)

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Reglas

The GAIA benchmark (https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.12983) aims to test for the next level of capability for AI agents.

Manifold Markets
  • Quoting from the paper: "GAIA proposes real-world questions that require a set of fundamental abilities such as reasoning, multi-modality handling, web browsing, and generally tool-use proficiency.
  • GAIA questions are conceptually simple for humans yet challenging for most advanced AIs: we show that human respondents obtain 92% vs. 15% for GPT-4 equipped with plugins."
  • This market will resolve based on when an AI system performs as well or better than humans on all 3 of the different levels of the benchmark.
  • I'll use the numbers from Table 4 in paper: 93.9% on level 1, 91.8% on level 2, and 87.3% on level 3.
  • (I'm using the conjunction of all 3 levels rather than the average to be somewhat conservative about this level being achieved.)