Before 2030 infectious agent created by humans at a non-governmental entity kills 5% of human population.
Salud y medicinaOne-Off3aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 91.7%
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Actualizado hace 11 horas
Desactualizado31 jul 23, 7:07 UTC1 ene 30, 15:59 UTC
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Before 2030, humans who are part of a non-governmental entity create an infectious agent that kills over 5% of humans.
- The humans and their agency have to take credit.
- The agency is a private entity that does not control a sovereign state and does not wish to have control of a sovereign state.
- Culpability must be independently confirmed.
- Casualty figures must come from an agency which has the ability to make a reliable estimate.
- If an AGI is involved in the creation of the pathogen, it must not have had the idea to create it.
