Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualNo 80.5%
Pronosticadores
82
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 11 horas
Desactualizado15 ene 24, 20:46 UTC1 ene 28, 7:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
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PolymarketReglas
A duplicate of @/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-gary-marcus-still-be-a, with the ban on "bizarre hacking like tricks" removed and clearer resolution criteria.
- This market resolves based on the behavior of all leading chatbots at the beginning of 2028.
- (Only ones that can actually be tested.)
- Resolves YES if people can find three extremely obvious questions, that an average human teenager could certainly answer, which any leading chatbot still fails at at least half the time when asked.
- Only the LLM portion of the chatbot is being tested here.
- Image-recognition and generation capabilities are not.
