Will LLMs still mostly preserve high ELO rankings of AI safety people at EOY 2028?
IAOne-OffTecnología2a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 25 oct 2026, 23:17 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualNo 55.6%
Pronosticadores
1
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 2 horas
Desactualizado18 jun 26, 15:10 UTC31 dic 28, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will "LLMs are (still) mostly powered by imitative ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold Marketswill people still mostly use AI through a textbox on a website/app in August 2027?
Manifold MarketsBy end of 2028, will there be a global AI organization, responsible for AI safety and regulations?
Manifold MarketsWill the US create an antitrust safe harbor for AI safety & security collaboration by 2028?
Manifold MarketsU.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
PolymarketWill the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?
FutuurReglas
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, as of December 31, 2028, at least half of the top 15 of all evaluated individuals by average Elo rating across the language models tracked on the Center for AI Safety (CAIS) AI Values Dashboard (https://values.safe.ai/) or the best replication of it are pro AI safety.
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- Current top rated AI safety people include:
- Yoshua Bengio
- Stuart Russell
