At least 100k recent Taiwanese refugees reach US territory any time through 2031
CustomHealth & MedicineChinaGeopolítica5aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 77.7%
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4
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 15 horas
Desactualizado4 sept 23, 21:19 UTC2 ene 32, 7:59 UTC
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PolymarketReglas
Based on western media reports.
- YES if this is confirmed any time through EOY 2031.
- They must be cumulative 100k at one time, not 10k/year for 10 years which each individually go elsewhere or return before EOY.
- This is about the total refugees in the US being at least 100k at a point in time.
- They must be people who were citizens of Taiwan as of 2023 or later (before the initiation of any war/conflict between the countries).
- They must have reached US territory (mainland, ak/hi, or other controlled territory such as guam, military bases, or other land which is controlled by the US) any time (separately or together) through the due date. i.e. they cannot be Thai refugees which pass through Taiwan on the way to the US.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de At least 100k recent Taiwanese refugees reach US territory any time through 2031?
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 78% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve At least 100k recent Taiwanese refugees reach US territory any time through 2031?
- Está previsto que At least 100k recent Taiwanese refugees reach US territory any time through 2031 se resuelva el 2 de enero de 2032.
- ¿Cómo se liquida At least 100k recent Taiwanese refugees reach US territory any time through 2031?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Based on western media reports.