Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 88.4%
Pronosticadores
87
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 5 horas
Desactualizado24 sept 23, 1:11 UTC2 ene 00, 7:59 UTC
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KalshiReglas
"Concious" is defined in the standard way: There is something it is like to be a baby.
- They have qualia, they have subjective experiences.
- Whatever it is that adult human philosophers believe themselves to have.
- This is about the average human baby, 1 week after birth.
- The existance of some outlier babies is not relevant.
- This market resolves once neuroscience is solved, and it seems we're going to have as good an answer as we're ever going to get.
Mercados abiertos
ScienceKALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 202921%
- Before 2028-1.0pt13%
- Before 20275%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 29,8 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 93,2 mil €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.3pt4%
- April 300%
- June 300%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
POLYMARKETWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- 1+1.5pt75%
- 2+0.5pt24%
- 3-0.2pt1%
+3 resultados más
POLYMARKETAI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
- No-8.4pt88%
- Yes+8.4pt12%
- Volumen total
- 27,5 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 3,2 mil €
KALSHIHow many tuberculosis cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
- Above 8k+9.0pt97%
- Above 7k89%
- Above 9k81%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 13,9 mil €
- Volumen 24h
KALSHIWhen will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
- Before 204064%
- Before 2035-5.1pt48%
- Before 203033%
+1 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 37,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 813,2 €
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Are babies conscious??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 88% a fecha de 20 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Are babies conscious??
- Está previsto que Are babies conscious? se resuelva el 2 de enero de 2100.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Are babies conscious??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: "Concious" is defined in the standard way: There is something it is like to be a baby.