Alcatraz transfer language passed by either chamber by end of 2026?
PolíticaOne-OffIAUS PoliticsCrime & Justice3mManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 84.6%
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Actualizado hace 2 horas
Desactualizado5 may 26, 1:10 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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Resolves YES if either the House or Senate passes any bill before January 1, 2027 containing statutory language that (a) transfers administrative jurisdiction over Alcatraz Island from Interior/NPS to DOJ or any DOJ component, (b) authorizes or requires such transfer, (c) modifies the GGNRA boundary to exclude Alcatraz Island, or (d) conditions appropriated funds on such transfer.
- Committee markup or report language alone does not count — full floor passage in at least one chamber is required.
- The bill need not become law for YES resolution.
- Resolves NO if no such bill passes either chamber by the deadline.
- Background: Trump's FY2027 budget requests $152M to begin reopening Alcatraz as a federal prison, but the island is currently part of Golden Gate National Recreation Area under NPS administration.
- Statutory transfer language is the cleanest legal path to durable reactivation; without it, any executive-branch attempt to convert the island faces significant litigation risk under NHPA, NEPA, and the GGNRA enabling statute.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Alcatraz transfer language passed by either chamber by end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 85% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Alcatraz transfer language passed by either chamber by end of 2026??
- Está previsto que Alcatraz transfer language passed by either chamber by end of 2026? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Alcatraz transfer language passed by either chamber by end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolves YES if either the House or Senate passes any bill before January 1, 2027 containing statutory language that (a) transfers administrative jurisdiction over Alcatraz Island from Interior/NPS to DOJ or any DOJ component, (b) authorizes or requires such transfer, (c) modifies the GGNRA boundary to exclude Alcatraz Island, or (d) conditions appropriated funds on such transfer.