Alcatraz transfer language passed by either chamber by end of 2026?
PolíticaOne-OffIAPolítica de EE. UU.Crimen y justicia2mManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 86.8%
Pronosticadores
50
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 16 horas
Desactualizado5 may 26, 1:10 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will the Tennessee state Democrats break out of the superminority in either chamber by the end of January 2036?
Manifold MarketsAlcatraz reopened in 2026?
PolymarketIf there are 100+ inmates at alligator alcatraz will there be a prison break of 1 or more inmates by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsAlcatraz holds ten federal inmates for one week before January 20, 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Alcatraz Island house a functioning prison with inmates by the end of Trump's second term in office?
Manifold MarketsWorld Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]
Manifold MarketsReglas
Resolves YES if either the House or Senate passes any bill before January 1, 2027 containing statutory language that (a) transfers administrative jurisdiction over Alcatraz Island from Interior/NPS to DOJ or any DOJ component, (b) authorizes or requires such transfer, (c) modifies the GGNRA boundary to exclude Alcatraz Island, or (d) conditions appropriated funds on such transfer.
- Committee markup or report language alone does not count — full floor passage in at least one chamber is required.
- The bill need not become law for YES resolution.
- Resolves NO if no such bill passes either chamber by the deadline.
- Background: Trump's FY2027 budget requests $152M to begin reopening Alcatraz as a federal prison, but the island is currently part of Golden Gate National Recreation Area under NPS administration.
- Statutory transfer language is the cleanest legal path to durable reactivation; without it, any executive-branch attempt to convert the island faces significant litigation risk under NHPA, NEPA, and the GGNRA enabling statute.
