Manifold MarketsCerradoSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoEste mercado está cerrado y esperando una resolución confirmada.
Datos de resolución no verificados
Este resultado se infiere o no está respaldado por evidencia de liquidación de nivel proveedor.
Pronóstico comunitario actualNo 97.3%
Pronosticadores
15
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado anteayer
Desactualizado16 feb 26, 8:101 ago 26, 7:04
Tendencias
97.3%
2.7%
Reglas
This market resolves based on the "Conservative Countdown to AGI" maintained by Dr. Alan D. Thompson
- Current Status: 97% (Updated Feb 2026).
- YES: The "Current Progress" meter on the official countdown page reaches 100% at any point on or before July 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM PT.
- NO: The countdown remains at or below 99% by the start of August 2026.
- Source: The primary source is the official website.
- If Dr. Thompson moves the needle to 100% or officially declares "AGI Achieved" per his criteria (Median Human performance + Physical Embodiment), the market resolves YES.
