Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualExponential (similar to 2020 to 2026), indicates some proto-AGI likely in that timeframe 31%Líder entre 4 opciones
Pronosticadores
12
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado8 mar 26, 7:17 UTC31 dic 33, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
If Trump wins, will the US government enact legislation that significantly slows down AI progress?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump publicly call for a global halt in AI progress before 2028?
Manifold MarketsPossible outcomes of the bet on AI progress between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketDeepSeek market share this week
KalshiReglas
Main factors for this
- Valuations + Revenues of Labs (OpenAI, Anthropic showing ~exponential growth in ARR and funding)
- Overall economic status (employment, GDP growth etc)
- Benchmarks (e.g. METR, ECI, AA) which have generally improved at a roughly constant rate with that rate increasing (roughly double) since mid 2024
- [image]Leaving Other for A. Sublinear (e.g. fraudulent, waste of money) bubble pops (idk FTX, NFT, type things).
- Though I think bubble popping similar to dot com might still be linear growth overall, just that the expectation of exponential leads to valuations popping, and other things like AI takeover (seems more aligned with Hyperexponential since we’re discussing AI progress rather than human progress) and or pausing AI development “early” idk, basically anything that doesn’t fit neatly into
Mercados abiertos
AIPOLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Alibaba-3.5pt84.6%
- Moonshot+4.7pt10.6%
- Z.ai+0.3pt1.9%
+8 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 410,1 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 56,4 mil €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+0.4pt70%
- ChatGPT-0.8pt15%
- Gemini+0.1pt7%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,7 M €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+4.0pt87%
- December 15,+1.0pt84%
- November 30,+6.0pt79%
+7 resultados más
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 2.7%91%
- Above 4.5%+19.0pt41%
- Above 5.6%+10.0pt20%
+6 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 58,4 mil €
KALSHIDeepSeek market share this week
- Above 22.7%99%
- Above 21.7%99%
- Above 23.6%-1.0pt95%
+6 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 70 mil €
- Volumen 24h
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 resultados más
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Best AI this week
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Anthropic market share this week
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de AI Progress Trajectory from 2028 to 2033?
- Manifold Markets cotiza Exponential (similar to 2020 to 2026), indicates some proto-AGI likely in that timeframe al 31% a fecha de 17 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve AI Progress Trajectory from 2028 to 2033?
- Está previsto que AI Progress Trajectory from 2028 to 2033 se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2033.
- ¿Cómo se liquida AI Progress Trajectory from 2028 to 2033?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Main factors for this